Group 03
The economics of the agent's conversation
$92,500 vs $8,100 median income
Experience correlates with order-of-magnitude differences in income. Median gross income was $92,500 for REALTORS with 16+ years of experience versus $8,100 for those with 2 years or less, and 62% of the newest members made under $10,000 in 2023.
Correlation, not a training-causation study. Authoritative primary source.
12 vs 2 transaction sides
Experienced agents close dramatically more transactions. Agents with 16+ years of experience closed a median of 12 brokerage transaction sides in 2023, versus just 2 for agents with 2 years or less (all-REALTOR median: 10).
Correlation, not proven causation from training.
49% of new agents closed nothing the next year
Recent cohort data shows new agents wash out fast: 49% of the 2022 entry cohort failed to close any transaction in 2023. The year-one failure rate rose from a 2017–2020 average of 28% to 37% for the 2021 cohort, with combined year-one-and-two failure for that cohort topping 50%.
"Failure" here means an agent who had a first closing but then closed nothing the following year. Credible analytics vendor, not government or academic.
$8,100 median income for the newest agents
The core reason new agents leave is economic. REALTORS with 2 years or less of experience had a median gross income of $8,100 in 2024, versus an all-member median of $58,100 and $78,900 for agents with 16+ years.
Authoritative primary source — the membership body itself.
~46,300 openings/year, mostly to replace leavers
Federal labor data confirms the occupation is high-churn. Employment of real estate brokers and agents is projected to grow just 3% from 2024 to 2034, yet about 46,300 openings are projected each year — largely to replace workers who transfer to other occupations or exit the labor force.
Authoritative government source.
12-year median experience; pipeline thinning
The membership is aging and the newcomer pipeline is thinning. The typical REALTOR had 12 years of experience in 2025, up from 10; members with 2 or fewer years fell to 15% from 18%, and agents under 40 fell to 11% from 17%. NAR anticipated a drop of about 150,000 agents by year end.
The 150,000 figure is a forward-looking NAR projection, not a measured outcome.
1 in 4 members not fully committed to staying
Even among surviving members, a meaningful minority expect to leave. 74% of REALTORS were "very certain" they would remain active for the next two years, 18% only "somewhat certain," and 8% "not certain."
Measures self-reported intent across the whole membership, not isolated new-agent turnover.
42% repeat / 29% referral business for veterans
Sustained productivity comes from repeat and referral business — and veteran agents draw heavily on it while new agents capture almost none. Agents with 16+ years drew a median 42% of business from repeat clients and 29% from referrals, versus a negligible share (under 1%) for agents with 2 years or less.
Repeat and referral business is earned in the conversation, over years. Primary NAR data.
10 sides, $2.5M volume, $55,800 median income
Headline productivity benchmarks remain low across all agents, framing why lifting transaction counts matters. The typical REALTOR completed 10 transaction sides (down from 12 in 2022) and $2.5M in sales volume, with a median gross income of $55,800 in 2023.
Primary NAR data, corroborated independently.
6 transactions, $45,000 net in 5 months
Structured training programs report measurable production outcomes. Agents completing the "100 Days to Greatness" program averaged 6 transactions (pending and closed) in 100 days and $45,000 in net income within 5 months.
Vendor self-reported marketing data with no published methodology or sample audit — included as vendor-reported, not independent evidence.
$55,000 agent-assisted vs FSBO price gap
Homes listed with an agent command a meaningfully higher median sale price than for-sale-by-owner homes: $435,000 versus $380,000, a $55,000 gap. It quantifies what an agent's representation is worth on a listing.
A median price gap, not a controlled measure of causal added value — FSBO homes differ in type and location.
90% used an agent; FSBO just 6%
Nearly every transaction is a contestable listing. 90% of sellers used an agent or broker, while FSBO sat at a historic low of 6% — meaning almost every deal can be won or lost in the conversation.
Primary NAR source, fully supported.
~$21,000 in commission per median home
Total commission on a typical home is a large dollar figure — exactly what an agent forfeits when a listing is lost to a competitor. 5.70% total commission works out to $20,987 on a $368,200 median-priced home.
A Feb 2026 survey of 533 agents by a real estate marketplace, not primary NAR data; the precise figure is the source's own implied math.
2.40% buyer-agent commission, essentially flat
The buyer's-agent commission has barely moved since the NAR settlement changed the rules: 2.40% in Q1 2025, versus 2.36% when the new rules took effect and 2.43% a year earlier. The commission stakes on each listing remain high.
Redfin's own analysis of its MLS data; numbers and the "did not collapse" framing are directly supported.
$407,500 median price; 4.06M sales (lowest since 1995)
Record-high prices raise the dollar value of every listing, while transaction volume sits at a multi-decade low. The median price reached a record $407,500 in 2024, even as existing-home sales fell to 4.06 million — the lowest annual level since 1995. Each listing is worth more and harder to replace.
Official NAR existing-home sales figures, reported via NAHB's Eye on Housing.